The Recruiting Odds Database
What are the real odds your kid plays college sports?
Every recruiting service tells parents what they want to hear. The NCAA publishes the actual data — but it's buried in PDFs nobody reads. We pulled it out, cross-referenced it with the 2024 House settlement roster caps, and added the honest parent-readable interpretation for each of the 9 major sports.
Soccer
- HS → NCAA
- 5.6%
- Men → D1
- 1.3%
- Women → D1
- 2.4%
Basketball
- HS → NCAA
- 3.5%
- Men → D1
- 1%
- Women → D1
- 1.3%
Football
- HS → NCAA
- 7.1%
- Men → D1
- 2.9%
Baseball
- HS → NCAA
- 7.8%
- Men → D1
- 2.4%
Softball
- HS → NCAA
- 5.8%
- Women → D1
- 1.8%
Volleyball
- HS → NCAA
- 4.3%
- Women → D1
- 1.4%
Lacrosse
- HS → NCAA
- 13%
- Men → D1
- 2.9%
- Women → D1
- 3.8%
Tennis
- HS → NCAA
- 4.9%
- Men → D1
- 1.6%
- Women → D1
- 1.5%
Girls Flag Football
- HS → NCAA
- 2%
- Women → D1
- 0.2%
What the aggregate numbers actually say
D1 is rarer than parents think
Across the 9 mainstream sports, the average HS-to-D1 conversion is ~2%. That includes lacrosse (highest, ~3–4%) and basketball (lowest, ~1%). For most parents, the actual recruiting opportunity is D2, D3, and NAIA — not D1.
D3 is not a downgrade
D3 schools offer no athletic scholarships, but academic and need-based aid at competitive D3 programs (NESCAC, Centennial, UAA) routinely beats a 25–40% D1 partial scholarship in net cost to the family.
The House settlement changed the math
Effective 2025–26, D1 programs operate under roster caps instead of scholarship limits. Practical effect: fewer walk-on spots at the top, more guaranteed scholarship dollars per offer.
Scholarship offers ≠ free ride
Outside of D1 headcount sports (football FBS, men's & women's basketball, women's volleyball, women's tennis), most D1 athletic offers are partial — typically 25–50% of cost-of-attendance.
Where does your athlete actually fit?
Knowing the distribution is one thing. Knowing where your kid lands inside it is what matters. The free Prospecta assessment gives you an honest division placement in 60 seconds.